Expert Workshop on Severe Weather Warnings

Workshop Topics

1. The broad multidisciplinary view: risk ethics (philosophy, moral reasoning), human behaviour (psychology) and legal frameworks (just) in the context of the warning process

2. Limitations and new prospects for ingredients-based warning approaches: How should the risk matrix be defined? Can more life be brought to forecasting impacts beyond the marketing term?

3. Communication - dealing with uncertainty: Why is there so little progress in communicating the warning uncertainty, and how can this be improved?

4. Action advice and public education: from understanding to response and action. We are seeking for good practice examples.

5. General and tailored warnings: What are the necessary differences? And how can the gaps between warners, emergency managements and end users be best bridged?

6. From physical ingredients to impact warnings: Are impacts in high-end meteorological events easier to predict and stronger tied to the physical magnitude than in more frequent and modest events?

7. A critical moment in the meteorological sphere: transition from forecasting to nowcasting and the resulting potential sudden jump in probability of extremely rare events. Should there be a stronger focus on the warning means in the “last hour”? When in time and at which probability and intensity threshold should sirens and other “strongly interrupting and potentially also frightening” means of warning be used?

8. Cross-institutional and cross-border communication: What is needed to ensure the flow of relevant information in extremely time-critical and high workload situations?

Draft Programme Outline

16 Oct. 2022 (Mon) afternoon

Oral presentations (max 20 minutes each) and   discussion

17 Oct. 2022 (Tue) morning

One or two oral presentations followed by joint   work on a recent case study (meteorological data provided in ESSL Testbed   Displayer), discussion of all aspects of the integral warning process

17 Oct. 2022 (Tue) afternoon

One or two oral presentations followed by joint   work on a second recent case study and wrapup of the day

18 Oct. 2022 (Wed) morning

One or two oral presentations followed by   joint work on a third recent case study

18 Oct. 2022 (Wed) afternoon

Discussion and wrapup of the workshop. Joint effort on writing down the most important findings of the workshop in   the form of a draft summary.

A detailed invitation for the workshop can be found in this PDF file: 

ESSL Expert Workshop on Severe Weather Warnings