Course: Forecasting Severe Convection (FSC 2025 autumn edition)

“Basic concepts of (severe) convection forecasting are introduced  with an emphasis on the ingredients based methodology. For each  ingredient I will present its importance for the convection along its  diagnosis and prognosis. A special emphasis is put on the identification  of “lift” or the process of convective initiation. After the basic  ingredients, we are going to look into vertical wind shear, especially  on its influence on the different organisational forms of convection  (single cells, multicells, supercells). For each form, we are going to  investigate its basic conceptual model and relate it to the potential  for severe weather. Further, we will concentrate on the synoptic and  mesoscale patterns that are supportive of severe convection and negative  factors that may degrade the severe convection risk. In the end, we are  going to look at different types of severe weather, their link to the  large-scale conditions and individual storm types.”

The four afternoon…