Course: Aviation Forecasting of Severe Convection (2024 autumn edition)

• Ingredients-based probabilistic forecasting of severe convective  gusts (both from gust fronts and downbursts), large hail, and tornadoes.

• Forecasting storm coverage and storm top height.

• Forecasting the predominant convective mode (storm type), and anticipating the related predominant hazards.

• Anticipating severe turbulence in the presence of AACPs (Above-Anvil  Cirrus Plumes) above and downstream of overshooting cumulonimbus  clouds.

• Nowcasting of convection, including dealing with convective developments where numerical model guidance is poor.

Our senior trainer, Dr. Tomáš Púčik, is as passionate about  forecasting severe convective storms as one can be. Alongside his past  experience in forecasting severe weather at national weather services  and at ESTOFEX, he is an active researcher in severe storm environments  at the ESSL.