Course: Aviation Forecasting of Severe Convection

• Ingredients-based probabilistic forecasting of severe convective  gusts (both from gust fronts and downbursts), large hail, and tornadoes.
• Forecasting storm coverage and storm top height.
• Forecasting the predominant convective mode (storm type), and anticipating the related predominant hazards.
• Anticipating severe turbulence in the presence of AACPs (Above-Anvil  Cirrus Plumes) above and downstream of overshooting cumulonimbus  clouds.
• Nowcasting of convection, including dealing with convective developments where numerical model guidance is poor.

Our senior trainer, Dr. Tomáš Púčik, is as passionate about  forecasting severe convective storms as one can be. Alongside his past  experience in forecasting severe weather at national weather services  and at ESTOFEX, he is an active researcher in severe storm environments  at the ESSL.

Each day will consist of a morning lecture and of a practical afternoon exercise.

The four afternoon exercises will deal with interesting cases of relevance for aviation forecasting in Europe. Dr. Tomáš Púčik: “Afternoon  exercises will involve forecasting convection either in the current  situation or using past cases for different parts of Europe in small  groups. After the forecast, a discussion will follow with an emphasis on  the subject that was studied during the morning”.

Lecture and exercise times: Mon 10:00 – 17:00 Tue 09:00 – 17:00 Wed 09:00 – 17:00 Thu 09:00 – 17:00 Fri 09:00 – 13:00, optional Testimonials 14:00 to 16:00

At the end of the course you will receive a participation certificate. You may choose to take an exam on Friday after the course and earn a testimonial.